How Do the Bruins Survive Without Patrice Bergeron?

Image result for David Krejci

Photo Credit: Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports

By: Spencer Fascetta | Follow Me on Twitter @PuckNerdHockey

The frustrating part for Bruins fans about losing Patrice Bergeron for at least a month is the loss of the most dominant 200-foot line in hockey. David Krejci between the two feels like the natural fix, but that decision is made more complicated by the lack of a defined #3 center on the roster. This has lead to a myriad of bizarre line combinations, including seeing Joakim Nordstrom, a career left-winger, centering a Top 6 line, Colby Cave, an undrafted career minor-leaguer, between Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, and completely splitting Marchand and Pastrnak and rolling out a Frankenstein-esque amalgamation of forwards in their Top 6. I decided to take a deeper look at how the Bruins have fared with different line combinations in their Top 6, and attempt to determine what the best setup they have tried it thus far.

Using the data provided by Corsica.hockey’s line tool, I gathered every line the Bruins have iced this year. As I am looking at 5-on-5 data only, and the typical limiter of 50 minutes of on-ice time together only gave me five total line combinations, I expanded the parameters and limited lines to having spent at least 10 minutes of 5-on-5 time on ice as a group. That gave me the following lines:

Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak
Danton Heinen, David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk
Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci, Joakim Nordstrom
Chris Wagner, Sean Kuraly, Noel Acciari
Chris Wagner, Sean Kuraly, David Backes
Anders Bjork, David Backes, Danton Heinen
Anders Bjork, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Danton Heinen
Brad Marchand, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, David Pastrnak
Danton Heinen, David Krejci, David Pastrnak
Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci, Ryan Donato
Anders Bjork, Joakim Nordstrom, Chris Wagner
Brad Marchand, Joakim Nordstrom, Jake DeBrusk
Anders Bjork, David Backes, Ryan Donato
Brad Marchand, Colby Cave, David Pastrnak
Noel Acciari, Sean Kuraly, Anders Bjork
Anders Bjork, Joakim Nordstrom, Ryan Donato
Joakim Nordstrom, Colby Cave, Noel Acciari
Anders Bjork, Sean Kuraly, Danton Heinen
Joakim Nordstrom, Sean Kuraly, Noel Acciari
Joakim Nordstrom, Chris Wagner, Noel Acciari
Brad Marchand, David Krejci, David Pastrnak
Anders Bjork, David Krejci, David Pastrnak
Danton Heinen, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Noel Acciari
Joakim Nordstrom, David Backes, Noel Acciari
Ryan Donato, Sean Kuraly, David Backes
Brad Marchand, Sean Kuraly, David Pastrnak

Here is a breakdown of the time on ice spent together as a line for each combination.

Time on Ice

 

Of the 27 different combinations, here is what I can conclude:

Goals For vs Expected Goals For

When looking at the difference between each line’s expected goals for percentage and their goals for percentage (the total goals scored by the team while that line is on the ice as a percentage of all goals scored while that line is on the ice), a few things stand out. For one, Jake DeBrusk and David Krejci are really good together, but having Ryan Donato ride with them is really not a good idea. As much as Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson may eventually be a good middle 6 center, he was a decidedly BAD fit between Marchand and Pastrnak. Surprisingly, having Colby Cave in that spot instead of JFK has produced excellent results so far, bordering on the line underperforming their expected numbers.

The key to this chart is actually how the rest of the lineup should be structured based on the numbers. Chris Wagner, Sean Kuraly, and David Backes have been very good when put together as a line, and realistically should be able to handle 3rd line minutes if necessary. Wagner with Joakim Nordstrom and Anders Bjork has been an even better line in fewer minutes, but with how effective Wagner is with the Kuraly/Backes duo, I would suggest this is a place where you play Ryan Donato in the middle, heavily shelter his zone starts, and let him and Bjork learn the defensive side with Nordstrom and be available for the second powerplay unit.

This allows you to see whether or not Donato can realistically be an NHL centerman, and gives you Nordstrom as a faceoff option if Donato struggles in the dot. That leaves Danton Heinen as the 3rd member of the Krejci/DeBrusk line, which has been the best combo the Bruins have had on the second line, and it isn’t incredibly close. The trio actually is out-performing the Bergeron line in fewer minutes.

PDO vs Expected PDO

How lucky have they been? Krejci in the Bergeron spot has been extremely lucky in a small sample, so I don’t put a ton of stock into their performance. Likewise, JFK in that spot wasn’t lucky and bordered on unlucky. Again, though, Cave there is a conundrum; that grouping has outperformed their EXPECTED PDO a ton, but have a very low expected PDO, which tells me their results are RIDICULOUSLY lucky.

Shots For Differential per 60

What about the shot differentials? I accounted for time on ice in this case, which gives a better approximation of individual impact as a line. In this case, Cave shows extremely well as a Bergeron replacement, and we see that Heinen/Krejci/DeBrusk and the original Bergeron line are both very good. Nordstrom between DeBrusk and Marchand has been decidedly bad, and putting Krejci between Marchand and Pastrnak has produced plenty of offense, but have been disastrous in terms of shot suppression. Nordstrom/Acciari/Kuraly have interesting numbers, and the Bjork/Wagner/Nordstrom line has been REALLY good. Granted, so has Wagner/Kuraly/Backes, so I think the real trick will be deciding where to slot Ryan Donato into the bottom 6. Once again, this allows for the sheltered 3rd line theory proposed above.

COOL. NUMBERS. YAY.

BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Well, let’s boil this down a bit. I think that, if the lineup is fully healthy, it should look something like this:

Marchand                                             Bergeron                                 Pastrnak


Heinen                                                   Krejci                                       DeBrusk


Bjork                                                      Donato                                     Nordstrom


Wagner                                                  Kuraly                                      Backes


 

So, this presents a few questions. For one, you now have a $6 million right winger. Backes’ contract was an albatross when it was signed, and that doesn’t change now. I’d rather put him in a position where his skill set is best utilized rather than attempting to jam a square peg into a round hole. His foot speed has diminished to the point where he is no longer an effective center, and he doesn’t fit as an offensive player in the Top 9. Additionally, the third line should get almost no defensive zone starts. Focus on playing them in the offensive zone, allow Bjork and Donato to go wild and be creative, and Nordstrom is there to make sure the line isn’t a complete black hole defensively. This allows you to make sure Donato can or can’t be an NHL centerman without a ton of stress on him to produce.

Image result for Colby Cave

Photo Credit: NHL.com

But what about Bergeron not being there? Well, for now (and I can’t believe I’m saying this), I think leaving Colby Cave there for a bit wouldn’t hurt. Realistically, he isn’t an NHL scorer, so he is there to win faceoffs, be defensively responsible, screen the goaltender, and allow Marchand and Pastrnak to be magicians. This is only 5-on-5 so I would not use him in overtime (Bruce…), and he wouldn’t get a sniff on the man-advantage. This allows the other three lines to try and get rolling and find some chemistry for when the Bergeron line is fully healthy. That way, when Bergy returns, secondary scoring doesn’t return to being a massive problem for the team.

Want to SEE these lines in action? There’s plenty of options, but I recommend that you check out the available tickets from our advertising partner SeatGiant for your next Boston Bruins game. Click the link below, and when purchasing any event ticket, from the NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL to concerts and shows, please use discount code BNGP to save a little money. Thank You!

—> Click Here for 2018-19 Boston Bruins Regular Season Games and Ticket Info From SeatGiant.com <—

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.