By: Declan Flavin | Follow me on Twitter / X @FlavinDeclan
Alright, the 15-12-0 record looks good for the Boston Bruins, but it’s time to take a step back and analyze what the advanced numbers suggest about how the team got to this point in the standings. It’s worth examining because, frankly, the team on advanced metrics doesn’t fully reflect the positive habits the lineup has looked to show in regular 5-on-5 play.
The Bruins are actually at the front of the pack in specifically situational categories they were falling behind in last season, which seems to be a key indicator on paper for why they’ve bounced back this season. This, along with the fact that goaltender Jeremy Swayman is, as you’ve likely read and heard, back to playing like the version of the goalie we saw during his sensational playoff run a couple of years ago.
Special Teams and Goaltending
According to MoneyPuck, the Bruins are scoring nearly three percent above their expected goal percentage, which sits at 45.44%. On the flip side, they are scoring about three percent below their expected power-play goal rate of 86.43%, a stat supported by simpler analytics showing the team has a top-ten power play, all while Swayman ranks first in goals saved above expected at 19.4%.
This suggests, of course, that the Bruins’ five-on-five play will be due for regression, while their power-play numbers and defensive performance should mostly stay on track. A stark contrast to a disappointing prior season, when interim head coach and historically successful special teams strategist Joe Sacco was expected to achieve similar analytics with a team that was also depleted and struggling for consistent output.
The suspenseful part is that the teams around the Bruins in the standings are posting better analytics but have yet to surge, so perhaps the Bruins can ride things out as they have. With a team identity that still visually keeps pace with the league, it’s hard not to believe in the plan for victory, whether it’s the “boring” inside-out style or not.
It’s up to you whether you want to trust these analytics, because clearly they haven’t determined the record for teams like the Bruins so far. For those who consistently watch today’s National Hockey League, they know that winning hockey can sometimes be measured by how quickly pucks are retrieved and how persistently players skate.
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