By: Ryan Jainchill | Follow me on Twitter / X @Jainchill_Ryan
As the second half of the season approaches, many questions need to be answered for the Boston Bruins. In the first half, they were a streaky team, but they have put themselves in a position to make a playoff push in February.
Many players have stepped up this season, solidifying their positions on the team moving forward and goaltending has improved significantly from last season. But questions still remain, especially regarding this team’s outlook as the NHL trade deadline approaches on March 6th.
What is the plan for the trade deadline?
When March 6th rolls around, the league will be in the midst of a trade frenzy. Moves have already started to be made, but not for the Bruins. The looming question for General Manager Don Sweeney and his staff leading into the first Friday of March is the direction of their team.
With the Atlantic Division being a moshpit at the moment and only four games remaining after the Olympic break before the deadline, Sweeney has some questions to answer. Does this team have enough? Should they buy? Should they sell? Some combination of the two? Or should they stand pat? While the answer will not be known until the sixth, some indications have already emerged about the Bruins’ plan.
The Bruins were heavily linked to former Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson, who would have solidified the right side of the Bruins defense for the foreseeable future. But with no extension in place, Sweeney rightfully backed out and watched as Vegas paid up for the study defenseman. Boston was also linked to former Vancouver Canucks forward Kierfer Sherwood, but he was dealt to San Jose last month. Currently, they are connected to St. Louis Blues right-handed defenseman Justin Faulk, who is in the final year of a $6.5 million contract and is 34-years-old.
These interests suggest Sweeney is seeking to expand his core with veterans who fill needs. But on the contrary, names like Pavel Zacha, Casey Mittelstadt and Mason Lohrei, among others, have been out there in the trade swirls. Yes, the value of those players is undeniable, especially for Zacha. But with the ages of these three players (28, 27 and 25, respectively), it makes more sense to build around them rather than move them.
So where does that leave the Bruins? The short answer: somewhere in the middle. Players on expiring contracts may be moved (such as defenseman Andrew Peeke), but it does not seem likely that a core player is on the move. If the Bruins are going to move pieces, not just draft picks, to add, it needs to be for a young player with term. Would teams be looking to move someone like that? Maybe, but it’s unlikely. This leaves Boston in a position where they should move some pieces but should not do so for a rental player who would cost them significant value, such as a first-round pick or a top prospect.
How does the condensed schedule play a role?
From February 26th to April 14th, the Bruins will play 25 games in 47 days, which includes six back-to-backs. With the condensed schedule due to the Olympic break, teams will be playing more frequently than in the average end-of-year stretch. This will lead to attrition and force teams to make lineup decisions, especially when managing injuries.
This season, Boston has played seven back-to-backs. In those 14 games, they are 7-5-2. When it comes to the game one and game two split, they are 2-3-2 in the first games and 5-2-0 in the second half. Winning the second game is important, especially after dropping the first. When the Bruins lose the first game, their record is 3-2-0, but two of those games have gone into overtime or a shootout.
The 25 in 47 is going to take a toll on a Bruins team that has already had injury scares. Recently, it was losing both forward Elias Lindholm and Zacha before heading to Florida for two crucial games. In November, defenseman Charlie McAvoy missed time after taking a shot to the face and defenseman Hampus Lindholm has also missed time. Staying healthy during the final two months of play is key for the Bruins if they want to stay in the playoff hunt, but trying to navigate through injuries will be difficult.
Goaltending decisions will also be important. Jeremy Swayman, who has had a bounce-back season that saw him start an Olympic game for Team USA, is 22-13-3 with a 2.92 GAA and a .903 save percentage. While those numbers have taken a hit at times, he has stolen the Bruins games and will continue to do that. His backup, Joonas Korpisalo, has struggled, but he had a fantastic month of January and helped the Bruins win key games. How Head Coach Marco Strum balances his tandem is crucial down the stretch.
Who is going to step up?
If the Bruins are going to continue to stay above the playoff line as the final few months of play begin, players are going to need to continue their strong seasons or step up. Players like David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie, McAvoy and others have brought the team to this point, but even they will be asked to do more. Geekie is one goal off his career high from last year in 21 fewer games, but Pastrnak has been snakebitten when it comes to scoring, having 22 goals through 52 games, even if he is sixth in the league in points.
When the Bruins have been at their best offensively this season, they have gotten production from everywhere in the lineup. Their power-play success is 26.3%, good for third in the league, but that skews the five-on-five numbers. A player like Lindholm, who has 11 goals on the season, has six on the power play. While he has plenty of even-strength assists, he is a key scorer who needs to be unlocked to help Geekie and Pastrnak, especially at five-on-five.
The second line, which has typically been Zacha, Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson, has thrived at five-on-five, combining for 30 goals when the teams are even. Rookie forward Fraser Minten has stepped up immensely, having 29 points in 57 games in his first full season of NHL play. Forward Marat Khusnutdinov has been a key cog as well, playing all over the lineup and has career-highs in every counting stat. Having these players maintain their strong seasons and getting more contributions from players like Lindholm, as well as more offense from the backend, is incredibly important for the Bruins.
Does this team make the playoffs?
In September, thinking the Bruins would be in playoff contention would have been a long shot. A few months removed from a roster teardown, saying this team would compete would have been a hot take. But, in February, this team is primed to compete for a playoff spot.
With 69 points and holding the final wild-card spot, there is a strong possibility the Bruins play meaningful hockey in April, playoffs or not. However, the Atlantic Division is only separated top to bottom by 17 points. The Tampa Bay Lightning, who lead the division, have 78 points, followed by the Montreal Canadiens and the Detroit Red Wings, who both have 72 points. The team directly ahead of Boston is the upstart Buffalo Sabres, who have 70 points.
On the wild card side, the suddenly hot Columbus Blue Jackets are four points back with a game in hand. They are Boston’s first opponent once the league resumes play. The Washington Capitals also have 65 points, but have played two more games than Boston. The Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs have 61 points, meaning a hot stretch from either of them could be killer for the Bruins.
The Bruins have not been outmatched by any of the teams they are competing with for playoff spots, although they have yet to see Columbus at all this season. With no West Coast trips remaining for Boston, the majority of their opponents will be the Eastern Conference foes they will be competing with for a playoff spot.
So does this team make the playoffs? This first stretch of play will be telling, given the fact that the trade deadline is in the middle of it. April will be the toughest month of play for Boston, as they visit Florida, Tampa and the Carolina Hurricanes and then host Tampa in the front half of a back-to-back. Depending on what moves are made and who steps up, Boston is primed to keep battling for a playoff spot as the season nears its end.
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