By: Ryan Jainchill | Follow me on Twitter / X @Jainchill_Ryan
In the thick of a tight Eastern Conference playoff race, the Boston Bruins have had a tough start to the month of April, holding a 0-2-1 record with one game remaining on their four-game road trip and four in the regular season. Despite only scoring three goals in nine periods against three Eastern Conference foes, the Bruins’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot has inched closer and closer to being zero. Why? They have gotten a lot of help from the rest of the conference.
Where it stands right now, the Bruins are 43-26-9 with 95 points and currently hold the top Wild Card spot. Boston has 31 regulation victories as of April 6 with four games remaining, which is important because that is the first tiebreaker. They have a five-point lead over the Ottawa Senators (1-3-0 versus opponent) for the top Wild Card spot and are six points ahead of the struggling New York Islanders (3-0-0) for a playoff spot.
For Boston, they mathematically will not catch the three teams ahead of them in the Atlantic Division: the Tampa Bay Lightning (0-2-1, one remaining), Buffalo Sabres (3-1-0) and Montreal Canadiens (2-1-1). All of those teams have earned 100 or more points and have clinched playoff spots.
On the Metropolitan Division side, which impacts Boston in terms of who they may play in the first round or who could be another Wild Card team, the 94-point Pittsburgh Penguins (2-0-1) are two points away from clinching a playoff spot and currently occupy second in the Metro. The Philadelphia Flyers (1-1-1), whom the Bruins fell to in overtime yesterday, are at 90 points and third in the Metro, but as long as Boston stays above Philadelphia in points, the Flyers have no impact on them.
Outside of Ottawa and New York, there are four teams still mathematically in the playoff picture who are not currently in it: the Detroit Red Wings (3-1-0), Columbus Blue Jackets (2-0-0, one remaining), Washington Capitals (3-0-0) and New Jersey Devils (1-0-1, one remaining).
Detroit, another Atlantic team, has almost fallen completely out of contention on the back of a 5-7-2 March and now a 1-2-0 start to April. The Red Wings, who have 88 points and 29 regulation wins, had comfortably been in playoff contention, but a regulation loss to the Bruins in the middle of March sent them on a tailspin. Now, hockeystats.com lists them at a 14% chance of making the playoffs with five games remaining.
The other four teams chasing the Bruins are in the Metro, so they are mostly fighting with both Ottawa and Philadelphia for a playoff spot. New Jersey’s elimination number, according to hockeymagicnumbers.com, is four points and have a sub-one percent playoff chance. Washington, after getting schlacked by the lowly New York Rangers last night, is at six points, with a 7% playoff chance. Those two teams, barring a winning streak and miraculous luck from the rest of the league, are basically done for.
So that leaves the Blue Jackets and the Islanders as Boston’s two real threats outside of Detroit. However, one thing that helps the Bruins in this situation is that, like New Jersey and Washington, they are in the Metro. Columbus, whom the Bruins are 2-0-0 against this season and still play once more before the season ends, has the next closest odds to Ottawa for a playoff spot at 25%. They have 88 points and 27 regulation wins, which would mean they lose the tiebreaker to Detroit. But again, Boston is not Columbus’s target: the Flyers and Senators are.
New York is where things start to get interesting for the Bruins. They have 89 points and 28 regulation wins with four games remaining. They also do not play until Thursday, when they host the eliminated Toronto Maple Leafs, so they will sit around for the next three days’ results. What makes the Islanders important for Boston is that if Boston wins tomorrow in Raleigh against the Metro-leading Carolina Hurricanes and if the Islanders lose on Thursday to Toronto, Boston would clinch.
Over the last week, the Bruins, despite losing the first three games of their four-game road trip, have gotten significant help in the playoff race by these aforementioned teams losing. Excluding Philadelphia, which has won seven of ten, including yesterday over Boston, no team that is a real threat to the Bruins has won more than they have lost over their last 10. Washington is the only exception, but they need some unprecedented luck to make a real push.
The Bruins’ point total to clinch a playoff spot is 99. Both Columbus and Detroit are at 88 points with five games remaining, meaning the most points they can get is 98. The most points the Islanders can get is 97, but with them sitting idle while Boston, Columbus, Detroit, Ottawa and Philadelphia play tomorrow, they have to scoreboard watch.
Regarding the upcoming schedule, Detroit and Columbus face off tomorrow night in a crucial game for both teams. One team is going to leave with 90 points and tie Ottawa in points, but would not pass them due to the regulation wins tiebreaker. Also on Tuesday, Ottawa hosts Tampa Bay.
Ottawa has five games remaining with only one against a playoff team. They do visit Long Island on Saturday in what could be a pivotal game for the Senators, Islanders and Bruins. Ottawa can reach 100 points, surpassing Boston, and given that they have 34 regulation wins, they would take the tiebreaker if the teams tied in points.
Boston has a difficult schedule coming up. They play two potential first-round opponents in Carolina and Tampa Bay to finish the week and then go to Columbus on a back-to-back Sunday night before ending the year at home against New Jersey, just like they did last season.
Despite a slow start to April, the Bruins have received plenty of help across the Eastern Conference to keep them in a great spot to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. While two victories in four games will send the Bruins to the postseason, some more help from the rest of the Eastern Conference could see the Bruins clinch as soon as Thursday.
Leave a Reply