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By: Mike Sullivan | Follow me on Twitter; @_MikeSullivan
The Boston Bruins have a problem heading into their potential lineup as the 2023 NHL Playoffs loom. An abundance of NHL-caliber defensemen with only six spots to earn leaves Bruins’ head coach, Jim Montgomery, with some decisions to make. Indeed, a good problem to have.
Derek Forbort was having a standout season providing the Boston Bruins with courageous shot-blocking skills and helping lead the team to a league-best penalty-kill system. He was a massive reason the teams’ PK unit was astoundingly good, clogging up lanes, clearing the puck, and putting his body on the line blocking shots like his life depended on it. Then, on March 16th, in a game against the Winnipeg Jets, Derek Forbort, per usual, blocked a shot that resulted in a lower-body injury, sidelining him for the rest of the regular season. Now that he’s healthy, the question is, does he slot back into the lineup, or is he more valuable as the extra defenseman?
The main argument for Derek Forbort’s return to the lineup stems primarily from his additions to the penalty kill. Forbort, in his first 54 games of the season before getting injured, averaged 3:08 of time on the penalty kill, helping lead the unit to an 85.8% success rate at the time that was ranked as the NHL’s best penalty kill percentage. Since his injury, the team’s PK has not skipped a beat; it has a slightly higher success rate at 89.6%.
As of right now, with Derek Forbort remaining out of the lineup and the addition of Dmitry Orlov, Jim Montgomery has been rolling with a multitude of bottom defensive pairings mainly rotating Zboril, Grzelcyck, and Clifton in that final spot. Recently, the mainstay defensive pairings have been: Dmitry Orlov-Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm-Brandon
Carlo and Matt Grzelcyck-Connor Clifton.
It’s hard to debate who Forbort should replace in the lineup since everybody has been playing so well. That may be a credit to everyone buying into Jim Montgomery’s system more than anything else. I understand that the plus/minus statistic is overused and not the most significant analytical statistic to use. However, when the entire defensive core is a positive player and the team itself is +128, there’s some weight to it.
Hampus Lindholm is a league-leading +46, Matt Grzelcyck is a + 46, Brandon Carlo is +44, Charlie McAvoy is a +29, Connor Clifton is a +20, Dmitry Orlov is a +10 in his games with the Bruins, and Derek Forbort is a +12. The only minus player is Jakub Zboril, at -1 in 22 games.
Bringing it back to the base of this article, the Bruins overall record with Derek Forbort in the lineup was 41-8-5, a .759 winning percentage. Without Derek Forbort in the lineup, the Bruins are 24-4-0, a winning percentage of .857.
At the end of the day, Jim Montgomery has a difficult decision to make. It’s either Matt Grzelcyck or Derek Forbort. It could depend on what the matchup looks like. If it’s a heavier team like Tampa Bay, you may want to lean toward Derek Forbort. If facing a faster, more skilled team like Carolina, you may want to lean toward Matt Grzelcyck.
Even so, Jim Montgomery and the Boston Bruins have a good problem with an excess of NHL caliber defensemen. If injuries happen in the playoffs, and you know they will, the confidence in the extra defenseman should be high. Either way, Jim Montgomery has a lot of decisions to make before Monday. Derek Forbort begins the playoffs as the extra defenseman until he’s needed.
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