(Photo Credit: AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

By Karoline Sears | Follow me on Mastodon: @spelled_with_a_k and Substack

In addition to bringing on some veteran players, Don Sweeney decided to invest in some youth already in the NHL circuit. Sweeney signed 25-year-old Morgan Geekie to a two-year, $2 million contract. While there are plenty of prospects developing in Providence, it’s likely that Geekie will do everything he can to keep his spot in the top league. And if Jim Montgomery can work his magic like he did with Pavel Zacha and Trent Frederic, I think the future looks pretty bright for the 6-foot-3, 200-pound centerman. Using my usual metrics, I took a closer look at the new kid on the block. Today’s numbers come courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.

Player Usage

Geekie was drafted in the third round of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft by Carolina but has only four years of NHL-level play under his belt. During his time with the Carolina AHL affiliate Charlotte Checkers, he appeared to excel, even earning a roster spot with the Canes’ playoff appearance in the Covid Bubble. The following season, however, he played in 36 of 82 games. By the end of the season, Geekie was left exposed for the Seattle Expansion Draft and found himself on his way to the Pacific Northwest.

The Emerald City seems to have been a positive experience for the young forward. Despite playing alongside some heavy-minute players, Geekie did start to see more consistent playing time. His average time on ice (TOI) went from 9:47 in his last year in Carolina to 12:36 in his first year in Seattle. Even in his sophomore season, he averaged 10:27.

Geekie has admitted that he wants to continue increasing his minutes and usage, no matter the situation. In terms of Player Usage, Geekie hasn’t posted high “tough” minutes; not just compared to his team or the league, but even among other young players. Across the league, he lands in the bottom 20th percentile for TOI and in the bottom 35th percentile among forward players 25 years old and younger.

Geekie’s time on ice among forwards under age 25

Shooting

A low average TOI is not a bad thing if a player has the ability to make the most of his time while out on the ice. Individual Corsi For (iCF) is a metric that measures just that: Is the player taking advantage of his time on the ice by taking shots? For Geekie the answer is yes.

Geekie places second in iCF and third in HDCF compared to the lowest ATOI Bruins last season

Comparing Geekie to the bottom average TOI players on the Bruins roster last season, he has no problem taking shots at the net, particularly in high danger areas. He continues to demonstrate improvement over the course of his short career in these areas, too.

Looking at his shooting percentages, Geekie is also either holding steady or showing improvement. With proper guidance, mentorship, and opportunity I believe that he will really start to shine in this area.

Goal Scoring

The ability to score goals is a top-line metric for any forward player; As you’ve read in some of my other posts, I like to compare actual goals scored to individual goals scored. This is a great stat to see how well the player performed in a season compared to expectations based on past performance.

He has been responsive in seasons following those where his goal count does not meet expected goal counts.

I love to see a trend like Geekie’s; Going into the 2021 season, his individual expected goals increased based on his performance in the previous seasons. But whether it was because he didn’t play many games (lack of scoring opportunities) or a simple lack of scoring (and thus scratched more often), he failed to meet expectations.

A change in scenery and the lowering of expectations allowed Geekie to exceed expectations last year. I agree with his take in a recent article with boston.com where he expressed his belief that an increase in minutes will result in momentum and growth for him to improve his game. The increase in minutes in Seattle certainly resulted in better goal-scoring outcomes. This would also likely help him improve his high and medium danger goal-scoring.

The percentage of goals by danger rating. Most of his goals have been from the low danger area of the ice.

Faceoffs

We all know what we lost with Patrice Bergeron’s retirement—an other-worldly ability to dominate the faceoff dot. As a center (and sometimes winger), Geekie is going to need some mentoring in this area. We saw how Charlie Coyle improved with guidance from the best; While a 50+% faceoff win percentage (FOW) is not terrible, Geekie’s FOW has decreased over time. I am optimistic that he can bring that metric up while in Boston.

I am looking forward to watching Morgan Geekie this season and thoughout his career. He shows tremendous potential. Seattle seems to have a program, but I have always felt that Boston has superior leadership on the ice to really challenge young players like Geekie to grow and perform at their highest level.