By: Tom Calautti | Follow me on Twitter @TCalauttis and Linktree
For the first time in quite a while, the Boston Bruins will go into the 2024 offseason with significant cap space and the ability to spend in free agency. Although some interesting names are available, Don Sweeney and Co. have some internal housekeeping they need to consider: whether or not to re-sign Jake DeBrusk.
If you look at DeBrusk’s baseline numbers, it’s easy to see why the team would want to extend him. He has registered at least 42 points in four of his six NHL seasons and scored at least 20 goals in three of six (he had 19 in 2019-2020 and would’ve surpassed 20 had the season not shut down for the COVID-19 pandemic). In his seventh season with the Bruins, DeBrusk has 12 goals, 13 assists, and 25 points in 47 games. Despite his slow start to the season, he’s still on pace to eclipse both 20 goals and 42 points and has 14 points (eight goals, six assists) in his 15 games since Christmas.
Check out this ESPN BET Massachusetts Promo Code for those Commonwealth residents looking for a sports wagering website that’s safe, trusted, and from industry leaders. Take a chance on building a parlay with a minimal investment to potentially turn into a huge cash return. Please wager responsibly.
Jake DeBrusk may be a streaky scorer, but when it comes down to brass tax, the Boston Bruins are a better team with him than without him. The Edmonton native is in the top three on the team in Corsi for percentage, goals for percentage, expected goals for percentage, scoring chances for percentage, and high-danger chances for percentage (via NaturalStatTrick). These analytics highlight that the Bruins control play, generate offense, and produce scoring chances when DeBrusk is on the ice.
If you look at DeBrusk’s numbers compared to other wingers around the league, it’s clear that he’s an upper-echelon forward that the team would be better off locking up than letting go. Among all left-wingers, the 27-year-old is tied for 14th in goals and 21st in points. All these stats make it abundantly clear that DeBrusk is a legitimate top-six winger that Boston would be well-served to lock up long-term.
How Much Will It Cost
When determining the cost of DeBrusk’s next contract, it’s essential to consider what other players with similar roles, stats, and abilities are making. One comparison I found is Andrew Mangiapane of the Calgary Flames. In August of 2022 (at age 26), he was signed to a three-year, $17.4 million extension by the Flames. The contract carries an average annual value of $5.8 million. In the three years before signing his contract, Mangiapane averaged 23 goals, 16 assists, and 39 points, so his production was similar to what Debrusk has produced throughout his career.
Another more recent comp is Philadelphia’s Owen Tippett, who recently signed an eight-year, $49.6 million contract with an average annual value of $6.2 million. Although considerably younger than DeBrusk (24), Tippett notched 27 goals and 49 points last season and already has 30 through the first half of the 2023-24 season. This contract indicates where the market for top-six wingers is heading, considering the expected cap increase this offseason.
The most statistically similar player who signed a deal in the past few seasons is Seattle’s Oliver Bjorkstrand. The former Blue Jacket averaged 21 goals, 18 assists, and 39 points. In 2021-22, Bjorkstrand signed a five-year, $27 million contract with an AAV of $5.4 million. Bjorkstrand was 26 when he inked the deal and was coming off of a career-high 55-point season (similar to DeBrusk’s position).
Bottom Line
When you factor in Debrusk’s age, production, and the current contracts on the market, it seems like a deal for the lifelong Bruin will fall somewhere in the range of five to six years for anywhere between $5.5-6 million per season. That price may seem steep to some Bruins fans, but when you consider all the factors that go into an extension, it’s a fair price to pay for someone who has been a consistent and reliable top-six forward outside of one season.
Jake DeBrusk wants to stay in Boston, and where he slots into the organization’s plans will dictate how the team approaches the upcoming offseason. Whether or not they decide to extend him, the Bruins need to figure out DeBrusk’s future with the team ahead of the NHL’s March 8th trade deadline.
As frustrated as the fan base gets with Debrusk, he is part of the core. you have to figure Ullmark and Grzelcyk will not be on the team next year. that could open up more cap flexibility. there is no secret about the mutual interest on both parties regarding Noah Hanifin.