By: Tom Calautti | @TCalauttis
The Boston Bruins are sputtering. The Black and Gold have lost their last four games and have dipped under .500 for the first time this season. There are plenty of issues they need to address, but the biggest problem hampering them is their five-on-five offense.
The 2025-26 iteration of the Boston Bruins wasn’t built to dominate with its forwards. Despite attempts to bolster the offense, things didn’t materialize, and management was forced to go the ‘piss and vinegar’ route when rounding out their forward group.
“The free agent class was what it was from an offensive standpoint,” said Cam Neely at the team’s Start-of-Season press conference. “So when it was as limited as it was… it’s going to be a little bit more challenging to try to get a player that you may want.”
We can all agree that after seeing the opening night roster, the Bruins were never going to be an offensive juggernaut. However, their lack of offensive production, especially at five-on-five, is becoming a problem.
When you look at the raw numbers, Boston’s offense isn’t THAT bad. Raw numbers aren’t that bad. Prior to Monday night’s NHL slate, the team is 16th in goals per game (a tidy 3.00) and tied for 5th in goals for with 21. Nothing transformative, but two relatively respectable numbers for a team that struggled with offense last season. But when you add in the fact that Boston is one of only four teams to play seven games already, those numbers are deceiving.
In fact, when you look under the hood, this Bruins offense is even more concerning than it meets the eye. It’s no secret that the teams that generate the most chances are generally the most successful. We can all agree there are outliers, but chance generation is a safe metric when evaluating an offense.
As it currently stands, Boston is a basement dweller in three major differential categories: expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger chances. Before Monday night’s action, the team is currently 29th in scoring chance differential (42.96 percent), 30th in expected goals differential (40.40 percent), and 31st in high-danger chance differential (37.50 percent). Simply put, the group as a whole isn’t generating enough chances to find the back of the net.
When we examine the data (courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) more closely, it becomes brutally clear that when David Pastrnak isn’t on the ice, this team can’t muster up any scoring punch.
If we zoom out to the broader category of ‘regular’ scoring chances (of the non-high-danger variety), the numbers illustrate that point very well. Pastrnak sits at 33rd overall with 15 scoring chances, a respectable showing given the team’s offensive ceiling. But after his name appears on the list, you need to scroll a LONG way before the next Bruin appears. In fact, you have to travel all the way outside of the top 120 players to find Viktor Arvidsson, Fraser Minten, Mark Kastelic, and Sean Kuraly, all of whom are tied for 123rd.
The high-danger chance numbers paint an even bleaker picture. Boston only has three skaters in the top 90 for individual high-danger chances. They include Pastrnak, Tanner Jeannot, and Kastelic (all tied at 83rd with five individual high-danger chances). Elias Lindholm and Johnny Beecher are the only others who fall within the top 200.
Perhaps the most damning stat of all is Boston’s league-wide ranking in terms of high-danger chances per 60. As it currently stands, the Bruins sit dead-last in the NHL with only 7.48 high-danger chances per 60 (stat courtesy of BNG’s own Eamon McLean). Let’s call that what it is, folks: not good enough.
The issue is clear: Boston’s top nine isn’t doing nearly enough to drive the offense. They aren’t scoring enough goals, and can’t generate enough chances to put pressure on their opponents. If this team is going to play meaningful games in the spring, let alone make the playoffs, that has to change.
Whether that involves promoting some players from Providence (Georgii Merkulov, Fabian Lysell, Matěj Blümel, Matt Poitras, and Alex Steeves are all averaging more than a point per game), mixing up the lines, or making an early-season trade, it’s evident that this team needs to get its offense going before it’s too late.
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