By: Andrew Patten | Follow me on Twitter/X @a_patten11
After grabbing two points in their last two games, the Boston Bruins are sitting pretty when it comes to their playoff odds. According to MoneyPuck, their odds are above 98 percent with three games left in the 2025-26 National Hockey League regular season. Who the black and gold will face in Round One is still to be determined.
It will be either the winner of the Atlantic Division, which is still being decided between the Tampa Bay Lightning, Buffalo Sabres, and Montreal Canadiens, or the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes clinched the Metropolitan Division title on Tuesday night. Each team presents a challenge to the Bruins, but none are immune to losing. How does Boston compare to their possible opponents? Let’s dive in.
Buffalo Sabres (BOS vs BUF in 2025-26: 3-1-0)
While the Bruins are one of the biggest surprises of the season, the Buffalo Sabres may be an even more remarkable story. Since December, Buffalo has been among the NHL’s best, with a red-hot winter propelling them into the fight for the Atlantic’s top spot. Led by gold medal winner Tage Thompson, the Sabres average 3.40 goals per game, good for seventh in the NHL. They also excel on the penalty kill at an 82 percent clip, ranking sixth—a concerning stat for a Bruins team that has struggled on the power play since the Olympic break.
However, the Bruins could find an advantage in Buffalo’s defensive zone. The Sabres allow the tenth most shots in the league and have rotated three goaltenders. There’s a saying: “If you have two goalies, you don’t have one.” What about three? It’s worked so far, but playoff pressure may challenge that approach. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has the best numbers of the trio, but no playoff experience.
Alex Lyon, who had some playoff starts for Florida, was benched after three games against Boston in 2023. Colten Ellis has scarce NHL minutes. Since Boston is a top-ten scoring team, it could exploit Buffalo’s uncertainty in net.
Tampa Bay Lightning (BOS vs TB in 2025-26: 0-2-1)
The Bolts have caused problems for Boston in their recent playoff matchups. Since the epic Eastern Conference meeting in May 2011, Boston has lost two series to Tampa Bay. The Bruins lost to the Bolts in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs semifinal in five games. They lost again in the bubble two years later, also in five games.
The Bolts excel at scoring and preventing goals. They’re led by Andrei Vasilevskiy, arguably the league’s best goalie. He ranks in the top five in wins, goals against, and save percentage. He’s also shown his toughness, dropping the gloves with Jeremy Swayman in the Stadium Series.
Tampa Bay’s offense is once again powered by Nikita Kucherov, who is fourth in the NHL with 43 goals and second in total points with 127. Compared to the Bruins, Tampa’s scorers like Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel, who have both netted over 30 goals, as well as defenseman Darren Raddysh, who has scored 21, could be a significant challenge. Tampa’s high-powered offense, especially on the power play, could cause problems for the Bruins.
Conversely, the Bruins have matched up well with Tampa Bay at five-on-five, despite not recording a win this season. Of the 12 Lightning goals against Boston, three came on the power play—a 25 percent rate. If the Bruins can cut down on penalties, an ongoing issue, they could turn the matchup in their favor. And, as past playoffs have shown, even strong Lightning teams are not invincible. Anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Carolina Hurricanes (BOS vs CAR in 2025-26: 1-1-1)
The Hurricanes are again among the top teams in the Eastern Conference, finishing first in the Metropolitan Division on Tuesday night. Compared to other top contenders, Carolina is one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. The Canes rank fourth among all NHL teams for goals per game and power play percentage.
At home in Raleigh, their 29-10-2 record makes them one of the hardest teams to beat. While the Hurricanes may lack a “true star” compared to some rivals, they make up for it with aggressive forechecking and high shot volume. In their overtime win against Boston on Tuesday night, they outshot the Bruins 41-21, further emphasizing their offensive style against a leading opponent.
Goaltending remains the Hurricanes’ biggest question mark. Like Buffalo, they’ve used a three-goalie rotation. Brandon Bussi leads in wins but has shown inconsistency lately, including allowing five goals to the Bruins. Frederik Andersen has struggled this season, due to both performance and injuries, and his .870 save percentage would be a career low.
Notably, Andersen’s playoff history against Boston hasn’t been favorable. Overall, while Carolina poses a tough challenge, their goaltending may provide the Bruins an opening, as it does against Buffalo.
Montreal Canadiens (BOS vs MTL in 2025-26: 2-1-1)
Let’s add another chapter to the NHL’s most historic rivalry. Of the four possible Round One matchups, a Boston-Montreal series promises the most intensity and excitement. After years of the Bruins finishing towards the top of the Atlantic Division and the Habs finishing towards the bottom, Montreal has made a strong return.
Montreal’s offense stands out as they rank eighth in power play and sixth in goals scored, with Cole Caufield—a top NHL scorer and noted Bruins Killer—leading the attack. Under head coach Martin St. Louis, who deserves Jack Adams recognition, Montreal has become one of the league’s fastest and most skilled teams.
Montreal struggles defensively, particularly on the penalty kill (21st) and in goals allowed (13th). Their goaltending situation remains unsettled, with three goalies used this season. Jakub Dobes has momentum with six straight wins, but limited playoff exposure (two games, .881 save percentage). Jacob Fowler, recalled in mid-March after brief earlier stints, has stabilized things with five wins in seven starts, but also lacks NHL playoff experience.
Sam Montembeault, once a mainstay, hasn’t played since March 6th. The Bruins have consistently found success in exciting matchups with Montreal. While Montreal matches Tampa Bay’s speed and skill, its shortage of playoff-tested players could benefit Boston.
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