By: Joe Todd | Follow me on Twitter: @heyjoetodd
The Bruins went a respectable 3-2-1 during Brad Marchand’s six-game suspension for his antics against Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry. However, when Bergeron was out with an upper-body injury during the first three games of Marchand’s suspension, the Bruins went 1-1-1, having only scored three goals in those games. Since 2016, including the most recent three games, the Bruins have only played six games without both of their dynamic duo in the lineup.
Their record in those games is 1-4-1, with a total of eight goals scored. That is a win percentage of roughly 25%, which would equal about 20 wins over an 82-game season. While the sample size is small, it is a scary thought to imagine this Bruins team without Bergeron and Marchand. Unfortunately, that reality could be sooner rather than later.
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Bergeron’s contract situation
Patrice Bergeron is entering the final year of his eight-year, $55 million contract, making him an unrestricted free agent for the first time since 2014. Bergeron will be turning 37 this summer, which has most of the hockey world wondering whether or not he will hang up his skates at the end of the year.
Having won a Stanley Cup, a World Cup of Hockey Gold Medal, an Olympic Gold Medal, a World Junior Gold Medal, four Selke trophies (in line for his record-breaking 5th this year), a King Clancy Memorial Trophy, and the Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award, there is not much more for the centerman to accomplish.
Given his injury and concussion history and having three children under seven, there are more reasons for Bergeron to retire than it is for him to keep playing. If he chooses to retire, that would leave Brad Marchand without his partner of over ten years.
Marchand is not the same player without 37 or 88
Since 2019, in the 1364 minutes, the trio of Marchand – Bergeron – Pastrnak has played together at even-strength; they have scored 102 goals while allowing 59, for a goals for percentage of 63%. In the 257 minutes of even-strength that Marchand and Pastrnak have played without Bergeron, they have allowed 19 goals against while scoring 14, which is a goals for percentage of only 42%. To understand the whole picture, without either Bergeron or Pastrnak, Marchand and his linemates have scored 12 goals and allowed 13 against in 175 minutes, for a goals for percentage of 48%. While Brad Marchand is one of the best players in the league, his impact decreases fairly significantly without Bergeron or Pastrnak.
Marchand contract situation
In 2017, Don Sweeney signed Brad Marchand to an eight-year contract extension worth $49 million and an annual average cap hit of $6.125 million per year until 2025. After this season, Marchand will have three years left on his current deal. His no-movement clause expires after this season, and his modified no-trade clause begins June 1st, 2022, in which he has a six-team trade list, according to Capfriendly.
With one of the best contracts in the league and on pace for over 100 points this year, Marchand will fetch a premium on the trade market. With the Bruins in line for an inevitable rebuild after the losses of Tuukka Rask, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara, and soon-to-be Patrice Bergeron, trading Marchand this summer for considerable assets will stock the bare prospect cupboards for years to come, especially when the 2023 draft features a player worth tanking for.
Fall hard for Bedard
Connor Bedard became the Western Hockey League’s first exceptional status player when he was drafted first overall by the Regina Pats in 2020. As a 15-year-old, Bedard scored 28 points in 15 games. This year in 38 games, the 16-year-old center has scored 30 goals and has 26 assists for 56 points.
According to eliteprospects.com, he is projected to score 50 goals and have 94 points in 62 games. TSN’s Director of Scouting Craig Button praises Bedard for his hockey sense, hand skills, and ability to break down his opponents quickly and effectively. For a Bruins team whose prospect pipeline consistently ranks in the bottom five and with no high-end centers in the organization to take over what Bergeron and Krejci leave behind, the Bruins best chance to remain competitive for years to come is to tank for Bedard in 2023. To do so, the Bruins must seriously consider trading Brad Marchand.
Conclusion
IF Bergeron retires this summer, the Bruins need to trade their best player in Brad Marchand before the league gets a sense of how he performs without him. Having scored over a point-per-game since 2016 and currently on pace for his second 100-point season, Marchand’s value is at an all-time high. While the six-team trade list limits the Bruins potential return, the Bruins could still easily acquire a team’s best prospect, an unprotected first-round pick in 2023, and much more, thus filling their prospect pool. Look at Jack Eichel’s trade return as the MINIMUM.
More importantly, trading him in the summer of 2022 sets the Bruins up for an abysmal season where they will be able to compete for the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, a player worth sacrificing a season for, and one who is capable of replacing both Marchand and Bergeron.
sure, trade what’s left of the soul of the bruins. He’s the only true Bruin left ; with the fire , character and talent he exudes , just trade him because you don’t think he can perform without Bergeron or Pasternak? I , I think not. I think you just want to get rid of him because of his history. Poor decision. If he’s gone too, you will have lost the soul of a team,,,, and probably a good portion of your fan base
John,
I think he is perfectly capable of performing without 37/88, he is a star player, but he won’t have the same impact without those two because they are also stars. I have no issues with his suspension history. He is our most valuable asset, and would accelerate the inevitable rebuild to come.
Thanks for reading!
Trading Marchand to try to get Bedard doesn’t really make sense. Considering the B’s will still have Pasternak, Hall, McAvoy, and above average goaltending, they’d likely be a mushy middle team, and might not even qualify for the draft lottery (only the worst 11 teams can pick number one.) And since they wouldn’t be anywhere as bad as a number of teams like Arizona or Seattle, even if they were in the bottom 11 they won’t have very good odds. So they end up picking let’s say tenth, and get a player who won’t be an effective NHL player for a couple of years. Meanwhile they’re burning off the prime years of Pasternak and McAvoy. Plus, let’s be honest, based on Sweeney’s track record he wouldn’t get equal value for Marchand. It would be a low first round pick plus two players the B’s will be buying out in a couple of years.